Predictions for the fifth season of Game of Thrones

WARNING! I have read the books, stay away if you haven’t!

Now that I suspect the trailer for the fifth season of Game of Thrones to be released in a matter of days I have decided to share a few thoughts about what I believe will and wont happen in the coming episodes. I’ll intentionally do this before the release of the trailer so as to not be influenced by it, you ain’t gonna get no Monday morning quarterbacking from me. Keep in mind that I have read all the books and that if you haven’t, this post may spoil it all for you and you should quickly press Alt + F4.

The fifth book focuses on three particular characters, Daenerys, Tyrion and Jon, and therefore it may be of interest to start with what the show is gonna do with these three. Some things are obvious, Dany’s final scene in the season will probably take place in the fighting pit in Mereen, when she flies away from the crowd on Drogon. This is in fact a good candidate for the episode nine major event that has characterized each season so far.

It would imply that Daenerys will be entirely absent in the season finale, so I’m not sure that they will do it this way, but the incident with the dragon in the pit is the best candidate they have for keeping up the ninth episode pattern without messing up the timeline completely. I also don’t believe that those who only watch the show care all that much for the Dothraki anymore, so having Dany’s last scene be of meeting Rakharo or whoever it was on the prarie and then probably having her dragon kill and eat him doesn’t quite cut it. And if Daenerys leaves in the ninth episode and isn’t seen again, then the tenth episode can focus on how Barristan kicks ass in Mereen in her name, arrests the king and generally stirs shit up while she is gone.

To sum it up I hereby predict that Daenery’s story arc will follow the book closely, having the wedding take place in the middle of the season, say episode six, and then to end with the dragon flight in the ninth episode. This fits with having the Dornish idiot let loose the other two dragons in the final episode as well. That’s what I have to say about Daenerys, and that’s also it for the easier predictions, now let’s deal with Jon.

Jon has two important things going on in his future, he is going to become lord commander of the Night’s Watch and he is going to die. The former almost certainly takes place in this season, the latter is far less certain. I think they are reluctant to have the show proceed past Jon’s death and possible resurrection before the books catch up, which makes him dying in season five more probable if they have received words from the author that the book is on it’s way.

The show has so far barely hinted about the fact that there’s gonna be an election in the Watch, which means that there is some setting up to do before he can become commander. An optimistic view of how this goes would then have him becoming lord commander at the end of episode three and striking off Janos Slynt’s head in episode four. I don’t see it going this quickly though, I’d say that there will be some filler, and that Jon’s election, execution of Slynt and burning of the fake Mance will take place in three subsequent later episodes, either four through six or five through seven. In particulair the execution of Slynt has been somewhat foreshadowed, it was probably the reasons that the writers reminded us of Slynt’s existence at all in the ninth episode of the fourth season. The way he acted like a coward and a traitor would fit well in with Jon beheading him for similar behavior later on

This leaves room for the things that have to happen before his death in episode ten, assuming like I said that the sixth book will be released during the coming summer. There’s quite a lot going on with Jon that lies outside the scope of the series, things having to do with wildling lore that hasn’t been mentioned and that there is probably no room for, so expect some filler here instead, probably more than in the scenes in Mereen.

My official predictions for Jon will thus be this: There will be filler and less relevant things from the book will be skipped, but the execution of Slynt is still in. A lot of characters specific details about the wildlings will be skipped, Mother Mole and so on. Jon dies in the last episode since, like I said above, the ninth episode is occupied by Dany.

Now Tyrion remains out of the three merry friends, and things are about to get freaky. There is a LOT of Essos lore in the Tyrion chapters, the geography alone will be confusing for someone who has watched the show but not read the books. Furthermore we know a bit about the casting of the season but as far as I can tell we still haven’t heard anything about the casting of the crew on the boat that Tyrion catches a ride with.

The casting of the folks on the boat is relevant, since characters such as septa Lenore and daddy and kiddy Griff would play a part in several episodes. Either they’re keeping this casting a secret or this part of the story is where the most radical deviations will occur. I believe in the later, especially since it can coincide with the former. There will be changes made in Tyrion’s storyline and at this point I can’t reliably say anything about them.

Besides these three characters there are of course many minor ones that the television crowds will expect something from. Foremost among them are the Stark girls, Sansa and Arya. There isn’t much material left for either of them, especially not for Sansa who more or less had all her material presented in season four. Arya has some snippets of story left from the fifth book, but including this means including Bravos, which may overwhelm the viewers if we at the same time are too keep track of the Rhoyne on account of Tyrion, King’s landing as usual, Mereen and the Wall for above mentioned reasons, Dorne due to it being the home of half the new cast, the riverlands in general, and so on. On crazy theory involves them having Tyrion go to Bravos and excluding Volantis from the books. He can meet and be abducted by Jorah there instead, and have some sort of indirect contact with Arya while he’s at it.

I think we will see more of Sansa than in the books, and more importantly less of Arya then non-readers expect. The Sansa material will hopefully be all filler, every last scene of it, since I don’t want them to meddle with the new book. Expect one or both of the Stark sisters to have the same sort of dead-end arc like when Jon went to fight the renegade watchmen in the last season, something they pull out of their ass and that doesn’t affect the main plot at all.

There you have it, folks, that’s I all have to say for now. I will on these pages review each episode of the coming season like I did with the Newsroom, only difference being that now I will hopefully have time to actually review every last episode, with the Newsroom I started from the third. We will see then to what extent the predictions above turn out to be true.


4 responses to “Predictions for the fifth season of Game of Thrones

  1. Hmmm, I’ll have to take some time to re-read your predictions and think about this.

    Season Four pretty much finished up A Storm of Swords, with most of A Feast For Crows unfilmed, and just a little bit of A Dance With Dragons (mostly Theon/Ramsay stuff) seen in the season.

    I’ll give it some thought and try to leave some decent comments.

    Regardless, I think it’s great that you put out such detailed predictions.

    • Thanks. To be honest most of it comes from knowing what roles they have announced that they have cast. There are a couple of things I didn’t mention that could have made he post a bit more detailed, such as things rumored to have been said by actors about what their will do and so on, but I don’t have any confirmed quotes.

      I also wanna mention, since I didn’t in the main post, that I will revisit this subject as soon as the trailer is released.

  2. Nice read, exciting times. Can I just add you state Jon Snow dies, I need to pull you up here as that is an assumption, all we know is that Jon is stabbed his fate is not revealed in the books. Also there are strong hints we will get some material from Winds of Winter, of course nobody knows what until the book is released but I feel it’s likely to mean Jon’s fate, Sansa material, Theon material, Arya material (Mercy chapter), perhaps a little of Dany/Tyrion and maybe some further insight into the Battle for Winterfell. Agree with a lot of what you say though:-)

    • Well it is rather telling that the fifth book starts with the tale of a know skinchanger dying but living on as an animal, and then ends with another known skinchanger dying…

      I’ll grant you that we do not yet know how it ends, but the scene on television will hint at him dying. I wrote it like that to avoid venturing into book six territory.

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